Congress-Left parting of ways
An accident waiting to happen
By Amulya Ganguli
The break in the Congress-Left relationship was an accident waiting to happen. After all, they have never been natural allies. Right from the days of the communist slogan of yeh azadi jhooti hai in1947-48, they have been adversaries. It was only during Indira Gandhi's battles against the "reactionary" Syndicate in the Congress that the left supported her candidate, V.V. Giri, for the president's post, preparing the ground for a Congress-CPI tie-up in 1970. But it fell apart because of the Emergency, making the CPI return to the company of the Left in 1977-78.
In a sense, the Left's decision to support the Congress from outside in 2004 recalled the CPI's earlier ties with the Congress, which may have been under Soviet pressure. Just as the CPI had then presumed that it was the inspiration behind Indira Gandhi's socialistic policies till the scales fell from its eyes in 1975, Prakash Karat and Co also apparently thought in 2004 that they would guide the Congress's policies along socialistic lines, especially if Sonia Gandhi became Prime Minister.
But their first shock was when Manmohan Singh assumed charge with the blessings of the Congress's first family, and this shock was compounded when the prime minister picked up the threads of his economic reforms from where he had left off in 1996. Not only that, he also showed signs of abandoning non-alignment and moving closer to the US. It may now seem something of a mystery, therefore, why the Left remained in the Congress's company despite its twin disappointment of the dumping of Nehruvian socialism and non-alignment marking a sea-change in the Congress's economic and foreign policies.
The nuclear deal, of course, was the last straw on the camel's back. After its virtual acceptance by the Congress and the Manmohan Singh government, it was no longer possible for the Left to remain a partner of the UPA. Arguably, if the government had merely pursued economic reforms and maintained some kind of a distance from the US, the Left might have still remained in the Congress's company. Since the Buddhadev Bhattacharjee government is unabashedly pursuing a market-oriented line in West Bengal, and the chief minister himself is singing the praises of capitalism along with Jyoti Basu, it would have looked extremely odd for Karat and Co to criticise the government at the centre for its neo-liberal outlook.
But the N-deal left the communists with little option. As it is, the CPI)M)'s embracement of capitalism has caused fissures in their ranks, especially over the land acquisition in Nandigram and Singur. Leftist academics, writers and social activists like Sumit Sarkar, Mahashweta Devi, Arundhati Roy, Medha Patkar and others are no longer enamoured of the CPI(M). On top of this, a handshake with the American-Israeli "axis of evil", in the Left's view, would have sounded the death-knell for the CPI(M)'s ideological claims.
The Marxists and their allies must have been hoping against hope that Sonia Gandhi would finally bail them out. Her reluctance over forcing early elections over the deal was no secret. Nor was the unwillingness of the UPA's constituents to face the electorate at a time of high prices. But it was evidently Manmohan Singh's now-or-never stance which made them fall in line. Hence, Karat's criticism of the Prime Minister's stubbornness although he himself has not been a model of flexibility.
Could the CPI(M) general secretary have been less dogmatic ? After all, Jyoti Basu and Buddhadev Bhattacharjee have not hesitated to say that the market forces, and not socialism, would guide them in reviving West Bengal's economy. The chief minister has also blamed the militancy of Leftist trade unions in the Sixties and Seventies for the flight of capital from the state and is dead against the entry of unions in the IT sector. In this context, could Karat have been more accommodating?
Is it possible that where his party men in West Bengal have been guided by the pragmatic need to turn to the private sector because of electoral compulsions, much to the dismay of dogmatists like former finance minister Ashok Mitra, Karat's lack of experience in this field outside of university campuses has made him stiff and unbending?
After all, the outcome in the near future of the rupture between the Left and the Congress will not be of benefit to the former. For one thing, it is privately admitted by the Leftists themselves that their number of Lok Sabha seats will decline, making them much weaker than at present. For another, the current bonhomie between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party means that the left will not have much to fall back on since the Third Front will be a non-starter.
A weakening of the CPI(M)'s position will also mean that its allies will become more assertive than before to get their own back after years of playing a subservient role before Big Brother. A sign of this defiance is available from the RSP's initiatives with regard to a rival Left Front comprising, among others, the SUCI and the Maoists. If, on top of all this, the Congress were to make marginal gains because of the surge of support from the middle classes over the deal, then Karat will have much explaining to do.
-(IPA Service)

Join The Dots ..! -III
Silent Emergence of Hindu Terrorism
By Subhash Gatade
General Secretary of Congress Party Mr Digvijay Singh has attacked Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and RSS about recovery of arms in Shyampur District Sihore. While releasing a letter to the press which he has written to the Chief Minister Mr Singh categorically stated that members of RSS themselves are engaged in sending swords and knifes to instigate communal violence. The two miscreants from Shyampur who were found to be in possession of arms and were duly apprehended belong to RSS only. The letter specifically mentions that since the accused belong to RSS the chief minister would not take any action in this matter. You are under pressure from RSS also. Mentioning his earlier letter Mr Singh said that Mangilal and Phool Singh were arrested for delivering 24 swords and four knifes at Satyanarayan Bhati's house on 16 th March. These two persons belong to RSS. Within a few days of the recovery of the arms, minorities in Narsinhgarh and Talen (Rajgarh) came under attack and five people from both the sides lost lives.
The Congress leader mentioned a letter written by Sihore S.P. which says that despite attempts by the police the two accused have refused to divulge the information about the source of these arms. To conclude, the point one would like to emphasise that whether it is possible to link Tenkasi with Vardha or Nanded with Ahmedabad or for that matter Sihore or in our own atomised world view or not ?
('Sangh Sends Swords and Knifes' Bhaskar, Hindi Daily ( 19 July 2007) )
The arrests by Hindu terrorists from Thane and Panvel was followed by a controversial editorial in Saamna - edited by Bal Thackeray - in which he praised Hindu organisations involved in the blast, but asked them to make better "hindu" bombs instead of the low intensity bombs to match those made by "Islamic Terrorists" and explode them in "mini-Pakistans" in India. It also added that to save Hindus, Hindutva organisations need to form suicide squads much on the lines of Islamic terror organisations. According to the editorial, "Islamic terrorism" was "flourishing" in the country and to counter it, "Hindu terrorism" of the same power should be created.
It was quite natural that the provocative utterances received condemnation from a broad spectrum of political opinion - with many parties demanding prosecution of Bal Thackre - but inadvertently or deliberately so it served a dual purpose. On the one hand it helped temporarily deflect the attention of the concerned people from the silent emergence of hindu terrorism and on the other hand it was a tacit acknowledgement of its existence and growth.
Of course looking at the danger it presents before the situation of communal harmony in our country it is high time that apart from strategising against what is known us Jihadi terrorism, we also focus our attention on terrorism which is being unleashed by the majority community namely Hindu terrorism. It is high time that security establishment decides to make a radical rupture from the prevalent understanding vis-a-vis terrorism., polity gathers enough courage to admit its past mistakes and make a fresh beginning and the civil society at large breaks itself free from its community specific prejudices, then only it would be possible to rein in the scourge of of terrorism.
Perhaps few words of advice from a senior journalist like Prem Shankar Jha would be opportune at this moment. In a writeup for Outlook (May 26, 2008) immediately after the Jaipur blasts he said :
..An effective anti-terrorist strategy requires us to look even more deeply into ourselves. The police and security agencies only mirror the prejudices of the majority community and these have become more pronounced in the past two decades. Why has no one in office ever formally expressed regret for the terrible pogroms that have scarred the face of our society-from the '93 Mumbai killings to the '02 Gujarat massacres. Why are Indian courts suddenly handing out death penalties by the dozen, with a predisposition to singling out minorities? Indeed, so great has been the bias and so quixotic the rulings that it has provoked Amnesty International into making a scathing criticism of the Indian judiciary.
India's war against terror has just begun. But security forces cannot fight on their own. If our political leaders and the public don't do their part, we will find ourselves losing.
A balanced approach would enable us to look at facts with an open mind and would also help us look at minor details or minor clues to reach the perpetrators of such acts. Is not it a disturbing thing that while India is witnessing terrorist actions in different parts of the country but most of the cases the security people have not been able to make any headway in the investigations. Forget cathching the real perpetrators of such acts they are being blamed for the manner in which they have targetted specific community en masse. There have been countless stories of violations of human rights of very many people documented by different people/formations.
Take the case of Jaipur blasts, One still remembers the story of one Vijay who was immediately spotted after the Jaipur blasts, who told the police the name of his other (lady) accomplice, who were supposedly responsible for the blasts. Nobody has heard about Vijay after that incident.
Take the case of Malegaon blast. A few victims told the police that a body with a fake beard was recovered from among the dead bodies. Looking at the fact that in Nanded bomb blasts the issue of fake beard had been raised prominently, the security agencies could have finetuned direction of their investigation, but they persisted in the old manner only. And they did not bother to question the hospital people when they flatly denied that any such body was recovered.
It has been around one and half month that the tragic Jaipur blast took place but police does not seem have become any more wiser.According to Times of India ( 27 th June 2008) "..But as days have passed, suspect sketches, clues and leads once touted as vital have proved worthless and loudly proclaimed theories proved thin. Rajasthan police went on a manhunt in the city's shanties where Bangladeshi immigrants are holed up. They came back empty handed. " It also adds "Investigators are not ready to name HuJI as a definite suspect any more and only say its role and that of some Pakistan based terror outfits have not been ruled out."
Similar is the case of other bomb explosions. The Hyderabad Mecca Masjid blast is being probed by CBI. It is almost a year now and nothing concrete has emerged.
Would it be proper to assume that the police or the security establishment have finally decided that after any such incident they would keep moving in circles, leave the issue unresolved and would move to a new issue/incident.
As already stated, perhaps the need of the hour is get out of the stereotyped understanding vis-a-vis terrorism. Perhaps it is necessary that we transcend the habit of stigmatising or criminalising a particular community for all ills of the society. Perhaps it is necessary to ask those questions which were never asked earlier.
It has been quite some time that many Urdu papers have been raising a point about such terrorist acts which merits consideration. It talks of involvement of Israeli-US agents in all such incidents. Looking at the proximity of the Hindutva lobby with Israel, it is also being said that secret Hindu terror organisations are receiving training in Israel. Apparently these Hindu organisations are sending groups of cadres to Israel for agriculture training. But under the cover of this alibi the Israeli special forces are training the Hindutva cadres on bomb handling and fabrication techniques.
The correspondence between a terrorist action and its likely beneficiaries need also be matched. One thing is sure that the more such terrorist actions take place in India, it would further increase communal polarisation ( although it is to the credit of the composite heritage of the country that there have been no communal flareups in any part of the country after such acts, despite provocations from the majoritarian elements) and would help keep India in US ambit. US which has made a mess of itself in mid-east wants to build the US-Israel-India axis to maintain regional hegemony. It frowns upon any regional cooperation of India with its neighbouring countries especially from the mid-east. It is not for nothing that it has consistently opposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
Many commentators have written that Jaipur blasts definitely benefitted BJP in Karnatak elections. Can it then be said that some stray Hindu terrorist group at its own level executed the plan so that another member of the Hindutva family reaps its benefits.
VI
Any peace and justice loving person would admit that the question of (non-state) terrorism needs to be revisited urgently. While our concern about the growing network of Jihadi terrorism is welcome and we should not slacken our struggle against its criminal, anti-people activities/ manifestations, it should be conceded that our approach towards the whole question of terrorism has remained imbalanced or at best partial. One can cite incidents after incidents where the involvement of RSS, Shiv Sena or one of their affiliated organisations can be clearly demonstrated in acts which are considered 'terrorists actions' in todays parlance. It is a different matter that 'Islamic Terrorists' or 'Maoists' seem to be the usual whipping boys for the media or the intelligence people.
Look at the mental image of terrorism which exists in the minds of the people.
Would it be possible to ask ourselves then what could be said to be the first act of terrorism in independent India ?
Everybody would agree that killing of Mahatma Gandhi by a Hindu fanatic Nathuram Godse constitutes the first terrorist act in independent India. Godse, a Maharashtrian Brahmin, was associated with Hindu Mahasabha at the time of Mahatma's assasination and had his initial forays in the world of politics with the RSS. The world at large knows how the Hindu fanatics had planned the murder of the Mahatma and how the likes of Savarkar and Golwalkar were held responsible for creating the ambience of hate which culminated in the gruesome act.
If somebody poses before you another simple query relating to similar episodes in the sixty plus year trajectory of independent India - then what would be your response. Perhaps you would like to add the death of Indira Gandhi - killed by her Sikh bodyguards , killing of Rajeev Gandhi - who fell to a suicide attack by a Tamil Hindu woman, or for that matter demolition of the 500 year old Babri mosque by the marauders of the RSS-VHP-BJP-Shiv Sena. If one follows the debate further you would like to underline the 1984 riots ( actually genocide of Sikhs mainly perpetrated by Hindu lumpen elements instigated by the then ruling Congress Party), emergence of Khalistani terrorists movement or the five year old Gujarat genocide executed with military precision by the RSS and its affiliated organisations.
Compare all these major episodes in the history of Independent india - which encompassed many a terrorist acts within them - with the mental image which conjures up in your mind when one listens to any terrorist act in any part of the country. Does it have any resembelance with the image of a member of the majority community or one of those minority communities ? You would agree that the mental image has features specific to one of the religious minorities in our country.
Question naturally arises why is it that despite their participation in many a gruesome incidents, the role played by them in instigating riots ( as noted by many a commissions of enquiry) or there admission before camera about the planning which went in making a genocide happen (courtesy Tehelka sting operation) the Hindu fanatic who doubles up as a terrorist has not become a part of our social common sense. (To reemphasise one needs to underline that one is not being soft towards the likes of Lashkar-e-Toiba or Jaish-e-Mohammad, their activities are definitely condemnable but how is that every terrorist act in any part of the country is attributed to them and equally dangerours other outfits belonging to the majority community are allowed to go scotfree.)
Perhaps there is no simple answer to this query. One will have to delve deep into our past, take a dispassionate look at the anti-colonial struggle and also the tragic phase of partition riots. Simultaneously we will have to discern the threads of our present, understand for ourselves the role of different actors as well as the role of ideologies to reach any tentative understanding. It is for everyone to see that in a multireligious, multilingual country like ours the complexities of the situation are itself immense. We find ourselves in a situation where while 'communalism' of the majority community could be construed as 'nationalism', every assertion by the minority community on genuine demands tends to be seen with a 'communal' colour. And it follows from this that 'terrorism' unleashed by the majoritarians is easily disguised under the bursting of 'pent up anger' against the minorities.
Of course despite tremendous odds on our way to reach the kernel of truth, we should not feel disheartened in our journey. It is true that forces of hate and exclusion appear more organised today, but we should not forget the fact that there have been n number of occasions when despite provocations the masses did not get carried away with their agenda. We have on our side the glorious composite heritage of our country - which needs to be replenished - and the many silver linings in the otherwise bleak scenario.
(Concluded)
Contact : subhash.gatade@gmail.com

POLITICAL DELICACIES
Hard bargaining by SP, others
By Noora Chopra
A cabinet reshuffle and an AICC revamp is on the cards. In an attempt to save his government and fulfill the commitment to US President George Bush on the Indo-US civil nuclear deal, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is working to get the numbers right. If the buzz is anything to go by, Singh will have to pay a heavy price for support from the Samajwadi Party, Ajit Singh-led RLD, JD(S) headed by Deve Gowda, Shibu Soren (JMM) and even independents. Every one is haggling for ministerial berths. Samajwadi Party wants four ministerial berths - two cabinet posts and two Ministers of State. . Ajit Singh wants two, one cabinet minister post and one MOS; JDS too wants at least one and Shibu wants his coal ministry back. Mulayam is said to be bargaining with the Congress to back him as the Prime Minister if third front were to be in a position to form the government, post Lok Sabha elections. The buzz is that Amar Singh is said to have an eye on Petroleum Ministry. Congress is talking to Bhajan Lal's son, Kuldip Singh Bhishnoi, too. Though he has been expelled from the party, he has not been disqualified so far. If these leaders succeed in striking a deal with Manmohan Singh, a Cabinet reshuffle will become imminent. It is possible that several Congress ministers may be packed off to the party organisation. Priya Ranjan Das Munshi, Saifuddin Soz, Oscar Fernandes, Prithviraj Chauhan, Ajay Maken and Shakeel Ahmad are already holding dual posts.
Rahul Broke The Ice
Guess who broke the ice with Samajwadi Party? It was Rahul Gandhi who met SP president Mulayam Singh Yadav's son, Akhilesh Yadav. Things started falling in place after this meeting, says the buzz. .Amar Singh was summoned from US to carry forward the talks with the Congress. The grapevine also has it that it was on Rahul's insistence that Congress President Sonia Gandhi agreed to support the PM on the Indo-US deal and issued instructions to the party to back him. Rahul's team comprises boys who have graduated from US colleges. Kanishka Singh, Sachin Rao and Anand Adkoli have all studied in US.
Scare At AICC
Speculation is rife in Congress headquarters at 24 Akbar Road that in view of the Antony Committee recommendations, all AICC general secretaries, secretaries and other office-bearers should voluntarily resign from their respective posts giving a free hand to Congress President Sonia Gandhi to revamp the party. Pressure has mounted on the leadership to go to the polls with a new team. If the buzz is to be believed, Sonia Gandhi's political secretary Ahmad Patel is also under pressure to resign. It is seen as a fresh move by Patel's detractors to push him out. The Congress Working Committee is likely to discuss the present political situation either on Saturday or Sunday before the PM leaves for G8 summit in Tokyo.
Notice To Shekhawat
Former Vice-President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat has been served a notice by chairman of the Rajya Sabha House Committee JP Agarwal for continuing to occupy bungalow number 12 on Teen Murti Lane. It had been allotted to him when he was the Chairman of Rajya Sabha. As per the notice, bungalow No. 12 on Teen Murti Lane was placed at the disposal of the then chairman of the Rajya Sabha for use as office-cum-guest accommodation on 14.2.2006 with facilities of rent free accommodation, payment of electricity and water dues by Rajya Sabha secretariat and maintenance by CPWD. In the letter, Agarwal has said that , according to rules, no powers have been designated to Chairman of the House Committee or Secretary General of the Rajya Sabha to provide rent-free accommodation with facilities like electricity and water and maintenance by the CPWD to any dignitary or Rajya Sabha member except his government accommodation for residential use .This being the case, the former Rajya Sabha chairman is liable to pay the rent of this bungalow and payment of electricity and water dues for the period when he occupied this additional accommodation. He is also liable to pay the rent of bungalow No. 12 on Teenmurti Lane, which he is occupying.
By George, He Is Still Powerful!
If the leaders who attended the wedding of the son of Vincent George, former private secretary of Rajiv Gandhi and then Sonia Gandhi are any guide, George continues to wield power. Except for Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, more than a dozen union ministers and over a dozen office bearers of AICC flew to Kochi on June 30 to attend the wedding. Among those present were Petroleum, Minister Murli Deora, Panchayati Raj Minister Mani Shankar Aiyer, Labour Minister Oscar Fernandes, Minister for Social Empowerment Meira Kumar, Minister of State Rao Inderjit Singh, Ashwini Kumar, Pallam Raju, Muniyappa, former chief minister of Chhattisgarh Ajit Jogi and K. Karunakaran. The PCC chiefs who made it to the wedding were Ramesh Chennithala, Suresh Pachauri and Rita Bahuguna. AICC office-bearers and secretaries like Manish Tiwari, Mabel Rebello, Irshad Beg, Imran Kidwai, Major Dalbir and Ranji Thomas were also there. George's political clout can be judged from the fact that even allies flew to attend the wedding. Union Health Minister A. Ramadoss, Prem Gupta of RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan were also seen wishing the newly wedded couple.
Advani Annoys RSS, VHP
The RSS and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad leaders are upset over the absence of LK Advani from the meeting held by the BJP to take stock of the Amarnath Yatra issue. The party was told by Advani supporters that he was in Bhopal. But the grapevine has it that Advani had returned to Delhi by 11 am while the meeting was scheduled for 4 pm. It is said that Advani preferred to stay away from the meeting as he is working hard to change his image from a communal hardliner to a secular leader on the lines of Vajpayee. What amazed those present at the meeting further was the 'return' of Murli Manohar Joshi. Joshi, who had been sidelined for several years, was given a place on the podium in place of Advani. There were three chairs on the dais: one for party president Rajnath Singh, one for Jaswant Singh and the third for LK Advani. But when Advani failed to turn up, Joshi was asked to take the seat. The question now being asked is, what is up the RSS sleeve? Can Joshi replace Advani?
-(IPA)

UPA government fumbling more than ever
By S. Sethuraman
India's high growth story has now receded to the background with the onslaught of double-digit inflation while the Congress leadership of the UPA Government has worked itself up to clinch the Indo-US nuclear deal, whatever be its political consequences including a possible earlier dissolution of the 14th Lok Sabha for elections, ahead of the May 2009 deadline.
The Left, stubbornly opposed to the deal, has threatened to withdraw its support to Government if it went ahead with the agreement negotiated with IAEA on India-specific safeguards, a major step toward operationalisation of the nuclear deal. It will choose its own timing to reduce the UPA Government to a minority status but the Congress hopes to rope in the Samajwadi Party to its rescue.
Allies sharing power in the UPA Government are not in favour of early elections and preferred a consensus on the nuclear deal with the Left on board. Meanwhile, the Congress President Ms. Sonia Gandhi's call on her partymen to prepare for elections at the state level in coming months as well at the national level underlined the determination of the party to back Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh who seems eager to give out positive signals when he meets President Bush on the sidelines of the G-8 Summit in Hokkaido (July 7-9).
The Left has resisted the deal and held it up as long as possible mainly basing its objections on the foreign policy implications of the deal, which is viewed by the Bush Administration as a global strategic alliance with India. For its part, the UPA Government touts the contribution from the deal to the country's long-term energy security and ending "nuclear isolation" if the deal gets through with the next stages before the US Congressional approval.
The negotiated draft agreement with IAEA has not been shared with Left raising its concerns further, and the Prime Minister has now offered to take the "sense of the House" before putting the deal into operation, i.e. the deal as it emerges after it goes through US Congress. Government had ignored the majority view in Parliament when the deal was debated in both Houses over the last two years. It must now be reckoning that, given the "interest" in the country, (as the Prime Minister notes), the deal could be safely placed before Parliament on a "take it or leave" basis and get it consummated.
The Congress leadership has already begun working out its own strategy for Government's survival, mainly relying on the 39-member Samajwadi Party of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, with whom it has been building bridges for support, after an estrangement of the past four years. If the Left pulls the plug in the near future, the Congress expects it would be able to weather any motion of no-confidence that BJP, which has begun its election campaign, might bring forward in the monsoon session of Parliament.
The Indian scene has dramatically changed with explosive political developments under way while inflation, on a relentless march, is hitting hard businesses and the people at large. There is a palpable sense of resignation in the Government to the unfolding economic developments while analysts at home and institutions abroad expect high inflation and overall growth slowdown are inescapable in 2008 and maybe even beyond. This gloomy assessment stems from the global oil prices on a continuous rise and already past the 143 dollar a barrel mark. Inflation worldwide is now led mainly by energy prices and, to some extent, by food and metal prices, which are already at record levels.
Government economists in India assume that the double- digit inflation, which could even reach 13-14 per cent in the next few weeks (from 11.45 per cent in the week ended June 14), would begin to moderate by October. By then, kharif crops ready for harvest would have benefited from the "near normal" monsoon forecast for 2008, and supply position would have improved to have a softening effect on the general price level, it is assumed. But oil and metal prices would continue to trigger concerns for a longer period even taking into account the lagged effects of fiscal and monetary measures mounted so far since March last.
The Congress, battered in a series of state elections, needs an environment of lower inflation and improved supply management before venturing to seek a new mandate. The efforts at the political level are to delay elections as long as possible, at any rate, till the end of 2008. However, there is no getting away from the destabilising impact on economy of the rampant inflation which is no doubt sought to be controlled by aggressive monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India which had raised the repo and CRR rates to 8.5 and 8.75 per cent effective July 1.
Commercial banks are raising the prime lending rates by 50 basis points at least and home, car and other retail loans would become dearer. Millions of depositors have suffered from inflation with their yields turning too negative. Rising interest rates are giving a big cost push for manufactures and services which could translate into higher prices and this could eventually lower demand for goods and result in some easing of inflationary pressures. The economy has to make a soft landing if it is to avoid even a mild recession.
RBI's justified monetary tightening of recent weeks, designed more to contain inflation expectations, may not help to reverse the tide in the near future while, on the other hand, the rise in interest rates would dampen investment sentiment and deferment of capacity expansion in manufactures.. Metal prices, especially steel, would firm up given the rise in the input costs, coke and iron ore.
It is now globally acknowledged that all countries may have to live with elevated energy, food and other commodity prices for a longer period. Thus, most countries including Asian would be unable to arrest high inflation, which would do damage to macro-economic fundamentals even for countries like India which has had a four-year run of robust growth averaging around 9 per cent. India's growth estimates for 2008-09 by different agencies, national and international, are in the 7 to 8 per cent range while official estimates stand at 8 to 8.5 per cent. But what is of greater concern is the likely deterioration in India's fiscal consolidation efforts and economists see a stiff rise in fiscal deficit at the end of the current fiscal year as against the budgeted 2.5 per cent of GDP.
It is oil prices that are devastating economies of poorer countries and OPEC attributes the elevated prices to falling US dollar and speculation, and has rejected US calls for greater production contending that the market is currently well supplied. The cartel has also turned down Finance Minister Mr. Chidambaram's plea for a pricing band. Emerging economies and the considerably worse off other developing countries have to manage their economies in conditions of unabated rise in commodity prices against the background of continuing global financial market instability, growth slowdown and inflationary surge worldwide.
-(IPA Service)

VIEW FROM PAKISTAN
'Invading' to regain one's own territory
By Khaled Ahmed
The state of Pakistan has perhaps finally reacted to loss of its territory to Al Qaeda with the military operation launched in Khyber Agency on June 28, 2008. One says 'perhaps' because the 'political enclave' may decide to 'break away' and renege on the commitment made to the army that it will stand behind the operation. Last time the army got involved in the Lal Masjid Operation the political party in power got divided over it, and Al Qaeda was able to isolate the commando group involved in storming the mosque in Islamabad and subject it a suicide-bomber attack with no one in Pakistan mourning for the martyred commandos.
The problem now facing Pakistan is that once a state tolerates loss of territory, getting it back is possible only with an invasion of the said territory. The 'invasion' itself then begins to entail its own consequences, one being the hostile reaction of the population now living under another 'pax'. Pakistan lost its territory to foreign invaders; now its army has to become an invader to get it back.
Commanders of the 'lost territory': Dr Farrukh Saleem ( The News , June 29, 2008) has outlined the extent of the lost territory around Peshawar: 'Haji Mangal Bagh Afridi controls most of what is west of Peshawar. Dara Adam Khel, a mere 35 kilometres south of Peshawar, is controlled by Baitullah Mehsud's loyalists. Charsadda and Shabqadar, both less than 30 kilometres north of Peshawar, are controlled by Commander Umar Khalid, TTP's (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) leader in Mohmand Agency'.
Outside the Peshawar region, there is more lost territory, and the operation will not be complete unless this 'hinterland' is won back too. Dr Saleem writes: 'South Waziristan now belongs to Baitullah Mehsud. Hafiz Gul Bahadur is the Taliban supreme commander in North Waziristan. Commander Umar Khalid is the boss in Mohmand. That's some 20,000 sq-km of physical Pakistan terrain'. The Tribal Areas are bound to get whatever is left of Pakistan into trouble with the rest of the world. Almost three 'theoretical models' of invasion have become applicable to the situation.
Foreign intervention or war of reprisal: 'Loss of territory' or 'loss of effective control' of the Tribal Areas lays Pakistan bare to invasion because of cross-border infiltration of Al Qaeda and its warlords into Afghanistan. There is the first aspect of 'loss of sovereignty'. JS Mill, whose theorising has contributed to international law, forbids invasion of a sovereign state aimed at making it internally benign. All internal change, he thought, should be 'self-determined'. But this ban becomes weak if a 'community' wants out of the sovereign system. In Pakistan's case, the lost territory is becoming home to a growing community wishing to opt out of the benign state.
The next aspect is that of intervention after evidence of threat from a state to a sovereign territory outside becomes available. This evidence is being carefully gathered and saved as a part of future case-making against Pakistan. The third aspect is that of pre-emptive invasion, based on the observation that Pakistan, by reason of its loss of control, poses a future threat to the region. One is not talking here of law but of practice.
One can see a regional consensus developing against Pakistan, counting within it states like India, Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Russia and even friendly Turkey. Out of these, Russia will react to Chechen terrorists being trained and sent into Dagestan; Uzbekistan will react to IMU's terrorists being trained and sent to Tashkent. China will possibly keep quiet but tacitly support a reprisal attack because of the training its Uighurs receive in Waziristan.
Mangal Bagh governs the 'lost territory': Paramilitary forces, whose personnel warlord Mangal Bagh used to take for ransom freely, moved on June 28, 2008 into the Khyber Agency in the neighbourhood of Peshawar and destroyed the warlord's house and made his 'hundred-thousand strong' army flee from its strong-hold. What started three years ago and swelled into a near autonomous state is finally being challenged by the state of Pakistan. It will be adjudged to be a late operation by historians and blame will be apportioned to the rulers of the day.
Warlord Mangal Bagh fled to Tirah, the high altitude valley that Pakistan was ever proud of calling a tribal no-man's land. He became the ruler of Khyber after killing those who resisted him. He got his income by imposing heavy fines on the local inhabitants for petty neglect of pities and began recruiting his army. The syndrome that surfaced in Khyber is the same as appeared in South Waziristan and Swat: intimidation followed by 'empowerment' of those abandoned by the state of Pakistan as soldiers and suicide-bombers of Islam.
When his 'government' became too big for Khyber's capacity to generate revenues to pay for it, Mangal Bagh descended on Peshawar, cherry-picking rich parties in borderline Hayatabad for extortion, then threatening the rich of Peshawar into paying him big cash. The snowballing of his business of death gave him the charisma he needed. As he killed innocent people in the Agency, people owing allegiance to his 'Islamic order' increased by the day in the NWFP and in other parts of the country. He began courting the TV channels when he saw that the rest of Pakistan too was ready for the plucking.
Establishing a state for Al Qaeda: A hundred years ago a water-carrier Batcha Saqao arose in Afghanistan, holding aloft the banner of Islam, and actually toppled the throne in Kabul to establish his rule there. The only difference today is that in Pakistan, 20 years of jihad, allowed by the state itself, has softened it for adventurists. The sacrifice made by Pakistan for jihad was not spiritual but political: an unwise abdication from its internal sovereignty. Jihad brought Al Qaeda to Pakistan as the generals sought 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan.
The warlords of the Tribal Areas gain sustenance from the umbrella control of Al Qaeda which can supplement the income of anyone who has exhausted his capacity to live off the retreating authority of the state and the helplessness of the citizens the state has abandoned. There are other more lethal 'losses' to consider, however. What all these Al Qaeda warlords - who call themselves the Taliban - know may not be a part of our consciousness. They know that they have conquered the minds of the rest of Pakistan and its political elite through their methods of intimidation.
Baitullah Mehsud suspended all peace talks with the army and declared that he will attack Sindh and Punjab. The politicians cringed. They will have to decide whether to support the government in this action or hang on to the reprieve they won earlier this year by dismissing the war in the Tribal Areas as 'not our war' and by focusing on the lawyers' movement where they even swore to lay down their lives for the sake of democracy in Pakistan. In a way, leaders are leaders today because they live under the 'pax' of Al Qaeda.
Will the army be stabbed in the back again? The possible response will be patterned like this. The politicians and the TV channels will disapprove of the military operation and will expect that as Baitullah Mehsud strikes in Punjab he will let them off the hook because of their 'neutrality'. The basis of this disapproval will be their interpretation of the operation, which will go like this: the Americans have imposed another war on Pakistan and the PPP government has succumbed to it and is now guilty of killing innocent people.
The national 'reneging' on the operation might come in the middle of July when the PPP and the PMLN move towards their 'divorce' on the issue of the judges. By then Mr Nawaz Sharif will have seen the lay of the land in the post-operation reactions. There will be the All-Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) threatening to start its own Long March inclusive of violent dharna . More importantly, there will be the lawyers' movement to be watched for its potential for the kind of violence its leader Mr Aitzaz Ahsan has vowed during his tour of the United States.
A 'divorce' will benefit neither the PMLN nor the PPP. But it will benefit Al Qaeda. Both parties are firmly grounded in popular support. The PPP alone might find the weight of 'national disapprobation' too much to carry on its shoulders. On the other hand, if the PMLN were to come to power after a mid-term election, the challenges it will have to face and overcome will be unprecedented, making it virtually impossible to rule without becoming unpopular. And after both the PPP and the PMLN come to grief because they could not pull together, the vacuum will be filled by Al Qaeda.if an international invasion to 'save Pakistan' has not happened by then.
-(Courtesy:
The Friday Times)

There's life after HIV/AIDS
By Anjulika Thingnam Samom
Sorokhaibam Thoibi Devi or Thoibi, as she is called, can understand the anguish of Rani, 36, an AIDS widow who until a short while ago struggled to earn a living for her three little ones by selling 'pakoras' (fried savouries) by the roadside.
Thoibi, 36, is an AIDS widow, too. With two young children and no family to call her own, she had long been a victim of the stigma and discrimination that comes with the illness. But since 2005 she has been trying to better the lives of others like her, serving as the General Secretary (GS) of the Manipur Network of Positive People (MNP+) in Thoubal district unit. But Thoibi's life as an AIDS widow has been traumatic to say the least. This is her tale.
"When I learnt that my husband, Ibosana, was hooked on drugs, I had an argument with him. Subsequently, our quarrels would become violent," recalls Sorokhaibam, who, as a young bride worked as a weaver and farm labourer to support her husband and family. Thoibi and Ibosana got married when they were 19.
Due to the frequent heated arguments their marriage went through a rough patch and Thoibi chose to go back to her maternal home. But, she soon returned as her husband was ailing and needed care. "We lived in a room in Imphal (state capital), and rented out cycle rickshaws for a living. For a while we were happy. But then he had a relapse... it was around the time I was expecting my second child," she recalls.
The couple decided to return to Wangjing, in Thoubal district, only to discover that Thoibi's brother-in-law had usurped their land and house. It was with local community intervention that the couple was able to build a new house on the land. Unfortunately, despite wanting to make a fresh start in their home, Thoibi's troubles continued to dog her. Ibosana was plastering the bamboo walls of their new home with straw and mud when he fell seriously ill.
A visit to the Voluntary Counseling and Test Centre (VCTC) at RIMS hospital in Imphal - where the couple went for testing - confirmed his HIV-positive status. Shockingly, Ibosana concealed Thoibi's status from her and continued to have unprotected sex with her, beating her up if she declined. "I refused one night... he beat me so badly that my kneecap was fractured. Fed up with life, I tried to hang myself but I couldn't even stand up due to the pain in my legs," she recalls.
In the midst of the domestic crisis, her in-laws decided to boycott the couple. With no support, Thoibi was left to care for the ailing Ibosana and make ends meet. The familial - and even societal - discrimination lasted much after her husband's death. Ibosana died when he was just 26. "I was so traumatised by the stigma that accompanied my husband's death (in April 1998) that I couldn't bring myself to step out of my own house... and within its four walls I was losing my mind and strength," recalls the widow.
"One day I was cooking in the kitchen and my two young daughters were studying by my side. Suddenly, one of Ibosana's cousins barged in and dragged me out by the hair, abusing me - all because someone mentioned my name in a family argument. I was innocent. Yet, the degree of suppression I had endured had sapped me of the courage to defend myself. I once again tried to kill myself," she says.
Her daughter's cries alerted everyone and Thoibi's life was saved. She was then accused of trying to defame the family by trying to take her life. But it wasn't as if they were helping her to live either. "I did manual labour for about three years after my husband's death to feed my family. On one side of my house was Ibosana's younger brother and on the other was his cousin's house. Both families were on bad terms with each other. They didn't speak to me either," she says.
In 2001, three years after her husband's death, Thoibi took the test once again and was declared HIV-positive. On the advice of the counsellors at the test centre, she began interacting with the MNP+ head office in the Yaiskul area of Imphal. Meeting up with other women helped her come to terms with her situation.
Yet, the discrimination and accusations continued, with her in-laws maligning her character. "When I went for Indian Network For People Living with HIV/AIDS (INP+) programmes, my husband's relatives accused me of going to search for a 'son', meaning that I was prostituting myself. I thought disclosing my status would make things better. But things only worsened. They banned me from taking water from the family pond, stopped my thoroughfare through their courtyard and even threw the empty medicine bottles lying around at me. They said I intended to spread my sickness to their children," she narrates.
Undeterred, Thoibi began to organise awareness programmes in Thoubal, encouraging HIV-positive women to come out in the open.
Thoubal with a total land area of 514 sq. kilometres and a population of 41,149 (2001 Census) stands second to Imphal (Imphal east and Imphal west districts) in the HIV-positive sero-surveillance tally with 2,309 cases as per the February 2008 Epidemiological Analysis report of the Manipur State Aids Control Society (MSACS). The total number of HIV-positive people in Manipur is 28,917.
Largely a result of Thoibi's mobilisation, MNP+ Thoubal now has 230 women among its members who are over 400 in number. Thoibi has individually approached and coaxed AIDS widows to declare their HIV status, join the network and learn to relive their lives. Exemplifying the impact of Thoibi's efforts is Rani, who is now an executive board member of MNP+ Thoubal and an outreach worker for the Access to Care and Treatment (ACT) Project of Action Aid, an NGO. It was on Thoibi's insistence that she disclosed her status and joined the network. When she was selling 'pakoras', Rani's daily earnings were only around Rs 100-200. Now, she draws a monthly income of Rs 8,000 to Rs 10,000 (US$1=Rs42). "Today, my eldest daughter has completed her high school. That, for me, is achievement enough," says Rani proudly.
"The fact that I have been able to help other women like me... is what makes me the happiest," says Thoibi, who is also joint-secretary and state women coordinator, Network of People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), Manipur. The network has representatives from nine districts in the Manipur and Sugnu area.
Thoibi has also aided many other women to become self reliant. As the GS of MNP+ Thoubal, she has been running income generation programmes - like food preservation, weaving, embroidery and traditional mat weaving - for HIV affected and infected women. Most women previously used to work in Self Help Group (SHG) units, but as they found the fare to and from the unit an additional burden, now they are encouraged to work from home.
Thoibi also contested for 'panchayat' (village council) elections last year but lost by a minuscule margin of 14 votes. She says, "Nothing pleases me more than the fact that I am helping others to realise that there is life after HIV/AIDS."
-(Courtesy: Women's Feature Service)

ATMA comes calling
By Anju Shalla 'Anjlal'
To ameliotrate the condition of its farmers, the government of J&K from time to time tries to introduce novel plans and programmes at the grass root level. If it was T&V in the late eighties, this time it is ATMA - Agricultural Technology Management Agency. If Trainings and Visits programme was to teach and impart latest technology to the farmers, this new concept seems all about managing that technology. Expectedly the experts have realised that 20 years of T&V are long enough of time to dessiminate technology from lab to land, hence a need for its management now.
After loitering from door to door with all those D-plots, minikits, polyhouses, schemes for pump sets the field functionaries i.e. JAAS of Agricultural department can now boast of spreading latest scientific technology and innovations about farming to every nook and each corner of Jammu province.
Today every farmer knows about fertilizer close, hybrid variety, timely sowing and line sowing; the peasant who knew only "Goli khad" can now exactly call its chemical name. The concept of "off-season" vegetables and flower cultivation giving better returns has finally made in-roads into their scheme of things. In a nutshell, methods and means of latest agriculture know-how seemingly has travelled far and wide. What is needed now is to manage this technology in earnest manner so that an poor farmer reaps its harvest to the greatest possible extent. ATMA to me is the real answer for this purpose. Those researched and worked over this concept have done a tremendous task and devised a multipronged and multifarious strategy to tackle farmer's problems at his/her field itself.
It is in this backdrop that three districts viz Jammu, Doda and Rajouri have been selected for the implementation of this programme in the first phase on a trial basis. The satisfactorily results of these trials/experiments, as and when comes, can be extended to each and every household of rural Jammu.
The first step in the implementation of this programme is the collection of basic data from the selected villates on the basis of which future plans and projects can be made for the over all development of that particular village.
For this a thorough survey is to be done about that particular piece of land in terms of its geographical area, total no of families, no of farm families, cultivable area, cultivated area, fallow land, forest land, pasture land, soil type, no and type of holdings, literacy rate of people, road connectivity, market facilities, transport facilities etc. is to be gathered. Not lagging behind has to remain horticulture, animal husbandry and veterinary, floriculture, forestry departments, sericulture etc etc a la! every single department has to contribute towards the formulation of village devleopment plans. In other words, all the departments have to revolve around Agriculture Department as it peg. Hence co-ordination and cohesion between all the sister concerns can be deemed as other name/meaning of ATMA.
In this connection, a training programme was organised by Department of Agriculture at Krishi Bhavan, Talab Tilloo in which all the subsidary wings too participated. The programme was conducted to train all the concerned officials regarding collection of data for the purpose. Participating in the training I felt little disappointed as the resource person from SKUAST-J seemed little less prepared for the occasion. The Valley of questions fired by the learners were hardly replied to the satisfaction. My intention here is not to criticise the trainers but to lay emphasis that such wonderful programme needs much more seriousness and sincerity on the part of higher officials lest it too gets lost into oblivion like all other programmes. If the basic exercise of survey and sampling is even 98 percent accurate (20 percent margin of error can be expected in such large hush-hash) only then "need based" and "true to requirement" plans can be chalked out. It is never the plan which lacks the "soul", but always it is the implementation which brings with itself the differences and disparities and hence finally the abortion of scientific creativity. I'd like to request all those connected with this programme to put their bit whole heartedly and honestly so that a golden opportunity for the farmers is not lost. At the same time I'd request Dr. M.P. Gupta the National Resource Person, ATMA to come up with minutest details regarding ATMA through his writeups in different news papers so that officials like me are well taught. Remember its just the beginning; we've to carry the mission of "farmer upliftment" to new heights and ATMA can be a stepping stone in this direction. So let's see ATMA come calling and hope we all especially the officials of Department of Agriculture are fully trained and versed to reply to its calls.
*(The author is a freelance journalist and an official in the Deptt. of Agriculture presently posted in Sub. Div. Marh).

Gwynne Dyer Column
Malaysia: Deja Vu all over again
Reading the first reports about the accusations against Malaysia's opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, I had to check the date at the top of the page. Has there been a time-slip? Is this file ten years old? For Anwar to be accused of sodomy again, ten years after he last challenged the position of Malaysia's prime minister and ended up in jail for sodomy (a crime in Malaysia), stretches the notion of coincidence to the breaking point.
Ten years ago the prime minister was Mahathir Mohamad, the long-ruling autocratic leader who had made Anwar his deputy prime minister. The two men fell out over economic policy and Anwar's too-obvious ambition, so he was charged with corruption - and, for good measure, with sodomy. His credibility had to be destroyed, and so a former employee was persuaded to lay a complaint against him.
Anwar is a married man with six children. That does not mean that he could not be guilty of homosexual rape, but there were many questionable elements of the case, including the fact that he was beaten almost to death by the national chief of police in person after he was arrested. Nevertheless, Anwar was convicted and sent to prison. His political career seemed over.
Mahathir finally retired at the age of 78 in 2003, and the courts overturned Anwar's conviction for sodomy the following year. He was freed from jail, but because the corruption conviction was not also quashed, he was still banned from running for office for five more years. The opposition coalition had come to see him as a leader, however, and his wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, became the head of the opposition in parliament.
Then, early this year, Malaysian politics went into overdrive. In the March election, the ruling National Front lost the two-thirds majority in the national parliament that it had held for the past forty years, emerging with a narrow majority that could easily crumble if only a couple of dozen of its members defect to the opposition. As they well might, given the way Malaysian politics is played.
Both the ruling National Front and the opposition alliance led by Anwar are coalitions of parties representing Malaysia's three main ethnic groups, Malays, Chinese and Indians. To some extent they are just the "ins" and the "outs" - many leading members of the opposition coalition, like Anwar himself, once belonged to the National Front, but were disappointed in their ambitions - but some of the opposition parties also want to overthrow Malaysia's entire ethnic settlement.
The dominant population in most of what is now Malaysia is the Malays, a seafaring people who converted to Islam in the 15th century. Under British rule, however, huge numbers of Chinese and Indian workers were imported - and their descendants now account for 40 percent of the country's 26 million people.
The immigrants quickly came to dominate the economy, while the Malay majority remained mostly rural, less well educated, and much poorer. Malay resentment erupted into bloody race riots that almost tore the new country apart in 1969 - and so the New Economic Policy of 1970 gave preference to Malays for government jobs and contracts, university places, and business licenses.
Malaysia has prospered greatly since then - but the National Front that was created to preserve this deal was always in power, and the country was not really a full democracy. Much time has passed, however, and last March's election showed how much has changed. The new state government in Penang cancelled the Malay preference rule as soon as it took power last March, and in Kuala Lumpur last month Anwar Ibrahim claimed that thirty National Front members of parliament were ready to defect to his coalition, which would give the opposition a majority in the national parliament.
Moreover, the legal ban on Anwar's participation in public life expired in April, and he was about to seek a parliamentary seat in a by-election. He might have been prime minister by September. It would have been a revolution in Malaysian politics.
Then suddenly last week, a 23-year-old man who volunteered to work for the opposition during the election earlier this year, and then became an assistant to Anwar, accused him of sodomy. Anwar immediately took refuge in the Turkish embassy, fearing that the next step would be assassination.
Anwar left the embassy again after getting a promise from Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi that he would not be harmed, but he could be arrested at any time. The National Front government, even if it did not set the whole thing up, certainly plans to let it play out. When Badawi was asked what he thought about Anwar's denials, he said it "was common for an accused person" to claim he was innocent.
This is a very dangerous game. The blood and fire of 1969 seem far away from the prosperity of modern Malaysia, but it was the pro-Malay preferences of the 1970 deal that made it stable. Now that deal has to be reshaped into something less unfair to the minorities. Malaysia can do it the easy way, or the hard way. It may choose the hard way.
*(Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries).

Do no harm
By Suhail Masoodi
Some time back I attended a seminar organised by "KOSHISH" a local NGO on community care or institutional care for orphans. As a student of this sector I was expecting to learn new things on this important topic from the esteemed speakers, but alas that didn't happen.
While listening to many speakers on the subject I understood we have to do a lot of home work before we engage with it seriously. It has been rightly said "little knowledge is a dangerous thing". A superficial knowledge about things will not help us to achieve the mission of helping orphans. One may be the jack of all trades but surely one cannot be the master of all. We can speak for hours and hours on a topic, but without any proper expertise one cannot do justice to it .In the American medical system there is term called "Do no harm" which means if you do not have expertise on a particular subject, you can sometimes do harm unconsciously. We in Kashmir mostly do harm without having an understanding of the concerns which we seek to address. Here I am not going to talk about our medical system, but our NGO system, where we call ourselves, professional social workers, development experts, child rights experts, human rights experts or what not, without having any proper training in these fields.
ÿIn any intervention, lack of proper expertise often leads to more harm than good. The manifest example of this kind could be found during 2005 earthquake, where we created a begging culture in the earthquake affected areas by making people habitual of taking relief. I remember a day in the aftermath of the earthquake when I was coming down from Kamalkote Uri, a girl hardly 7or 8 years old waved at me. I asked my driver to stop the car. No sooner had we stopped, she forwarded her hand for relief (relief melay ga). I was shocked to see a young girl turn to begging in the wake of relief efforts carried out by Kashmiri civil society. Later I was to encounter many a young beggars in the same area. A new and young breed of beggars had cropped up after the quake affected areas had been swarmed by troupes of NGOs to undertake relief operations.
Back to the earlier point of community care or institutional care, I heard speakers arguing whether we needed to support orphans in their respective homes or in orphanages. Most of the speakers supported community care and argued that they (orphans) should be kept in their homes where their needs could be taken care of.
I find myself in agreement with the same argument, but the question that arises is do we have resources to support an orphan at his/her home? Is our society capable of catering to the needs of orphans?
Technically, if a child has lost only one of his or her parents, he or she is not an orphan. Only if he/she has lost both of his or her parents then only he/she is called an orphan. Since ours is a patriarchal society, the male being the head of the family, if some body lose his/her fatherÿ he/she ÿis called an orphan. If the same kid has lost his or her mother, he or she would not consider an orphan. So to define it more clearly it is a matter of economics and social system. The classification may be seen to hinge more on economics than on any other criterion since most of the orphans come from poor family backgrounds and their mothers tend to be usually housewives and illiterate. So, only financial assistance to these kids will not solve their problem. We need to take a family as unit and support the whole family rather than an orphan in the family. Because supporting only an orphan in a family will not help us to reach our goal. Moreover, we need to build a community based system, where educated people from the adjacent localities will make regular visits to these families to check the progress of the kids. It has been observedÿ those orphans who are being supported in their homes usually lack the literacy culture as the families are not educated. So members of our society can fill this gap by making regular visits . Some people argue that there are more number of orphans in Chechnya, Palestine and many other conflict-hit areas than Kashmir .Why then orphanages were not created in these places? The answer is simple, the countries like Palestine, Chechnya etc are much ahead of us in literacy, economic development and community care. Their average literacy and average household income is much higher than ours. So they didn't have to negotiate huge problems regarding handling these kids .In Palestine or Chechnya, a motherÿ is largely able to provide all sort of necessary assistance to a child, be it in terms of education or in any other critical realm but same couldn't hold true for mothers of Kashmiri orphans. As we have seen in our orphanages most of the kids are from very poor households' .The ones who have better economic conditions live in their homes.
One of the biggest draw backs of our NGO system is: while making strategies for projects and programs we look at symptoms and not at the problems. We want quick fix solutions to every major problem .We are not able to develop goal and time bound strategies for our projects. We don't look at projects critically. Besides our own drawbacks, NGOs accept whatever project comes from their donor agencies, irrespective of whether the program can be fruitful at the ground level or not. Most of the times projects and strategies are formed in Delhi, Europe or the U.S devised for their own local settings and implemented in toto in Kashmir. The organisations should have a bottom up approach, but in Kashmir we tend to take a top down approach. Projects should be formed and implemented at the grassroots level. It is the people on the ground who understand the needs and problems of the locals in a better way than somebody located thousands of miles away and largely unaware of the socio-economics dimensions of a far away region. Most of our NGOs fail to develop a sustainable program strategy, proper exit strategy, good planning, and clear cut field domain of work.ÿ ÿ
There is no transparency of funds in NGO sector in Kashmir. Hardly any NGO makes their monthly and yearly expenses public. No doubt NGOs are answerable to their donors, but they are answerable to the target group community as well. Target group here does not mean if an NGO is working in Uri, they are answerable to the people of Uri only, but they are answerable to the whole Kashmiri community. Inspite of their drawbacks there are agencies like Vigilance, Crime Branch and other organisations to monitor the functioning of government departments, but we do not have any such independent organisation to monitor the functioning of NGOs. Be it local, Indian or an international NGO, we need to build a system where functioning of all organizations can be checked to ensure transparency and accountability. We have seen surveys done by some Indian and international NGOs in Kashmir which are totally distorting. Conflict and peace-building are being sold to gain personal interests. For example, according to a survey done by an International NGO, 50 percent of youth in district Anantnag are drug addicts. What is the authenticity of the survey? On the basis of samples collected in few villages one cannot make sweeping generalisations about one of the most populous districts of the Valley. Surveys are being done to fetch more and more money from donors. Some believe there are one lakh orphans, some contend that there are fifty thousand orphans in Kashmir and some claim the number of orphans to be around 2 lakh. We don't know the authenticity of these reports. There are thousands of NGOs in Kashmir, majority of them have been created by government or government run agencies. These so called NGOs supposedly fetch money for the development of Kashmir .Where is this money going? Nobody seems to know. Most of the times money is donated for the Kashmir region as it is the worst conflict hit as compared to Jammu and Ladakh regions. But unfortunately people running these NGOs ÿinvest this money for the development of Jammu and Ladakh regions. Problems don't end here. Some NGOs even go further, spending hefty amounts of money on various research and development projects which don't yield any effective results. The position of many orphanages in Kashmir is somewhat similar. They too are not ready to share their expenditures. Moreover, if you are a Kashmiri you are not allowed to meet orphans in most of the orphanages in Kashmir. However, people visiting from foreign countries are welcomed in these orphanages by their managers.
SUGGESTIONS:
In Kashmir NGO culture is very nascent and people are not much aware about their scope, functioning, roles, source of funding etc. So civil society needs to come forward and define the scope and functioning of NGOs. It has been seen mostly after the 2005 earthquake that most of the NGOs are being dubbed as Christian missionaries, which is not true. There is no doubt there may be NGOs which aim to spread Christianity, but not all the NGOs can be bracketed in the same category, as has been perceived by most of our maulanas.
Most of the times government funds meant for development are lapsed because projects proposals do not justify the purpose and equally fail to justify the outcome of the program /project. A government official disclosed in a workshop organized by IMPA for the capacity building of NGOs, that thousands of project proposals are rejected as they are not written professionally. So we need to train people in Project designing, Monitoring and evaluation to reach our goal effectively
International and national NGOs need to build capacity of local NGOs to pay the way for local people to change their lives according to their wishes and needs. It is the local people who understand the situation in a better way. We have seen in the ÿaftermath of the 2005 earthquake some NGOs distributing lipstick, mineral water and other luxury items in Tanghdar, Kupwara. So to start work in a particular area or region, we have to have a good knowledge of the culture, topography, demography, social inhibitions. Without keeping these factors in mind we would end up harming a community instead of helping them.
We need to have goal oriented and time bound projects and programs, which will help us to check whether we are reaching our goals in stipulated time or not. We have seen some international NGOs working here from last one or two decades without ÿproducing any substantial results. ÿNGOs need to be time bound and specific. Many NGOs are shifting from one sector to another. Some times NGOs consider themselves parallel to the government. It is not easy to replace the government. Even if it is, one should not try to. Otherwise they tend to overstretch their domains and as a result they are not able to do justice with the particular issue. A biggest example of specific and goal oriented project undertaken can be that of Mohammad Yunus who established Grameen bank (an organisation established for the sole purpose of providing micro-credit loans to poorest of the poor in Bangladesh). Yunus gave 27 dollars to 42 hardworking skilled people to start their business, with an agreement that they will pay him back. It was not a big deal for Yunus to donate this money to these poor people but he didn't want to build a begging culture, unlike most of our NGOs. After many disappointments from different quarters, he planned to establish his own bank and thus he laid the foundation of Grameen bank on October 2nd, 1983. Grameen bank works now in more than 46,000 villages, through 1,267 branches and over 12,000 staff. The bank lent more than 4.5 billion dollars. They have now started giving loans to beggars to help them come out of begging and start selling things. Had Mohammad Yunus switched from one project to other he would not have reached anywhere. So our NGOs need to be focused to reach their goals. We need to develop the strategy to be effective in our work in a way so that we are not doing harm unintentionally.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that there are some NGOs in Kashmir who have been doing a commendable job for the upliftment of the needy ones in our society. Some NGOs have played an important role for the rehabilitation of earthquake affected families in different parts of Valley. NGOs in Kashmir have been working in odd conditions, under the threat from many sides in the conflict. At the same time many NGOs have been hijacked by different people and organisations to further their personal interests. It is high time that NGOs in Kashmir work more positively, transparently and with a clear cut strategy so that people will not look at them with suspicion and stop giving this noble profession a bad name. Some NGOs in Kashmir are known for money swindling, nepotism, shady, unproductive what not. Hope they would turn a new leaf and prove to be agents of a positive and dynamic social change.

The world's will to tackle climate change is irresistible
By Rajendra Pachauri
Last year marked a watershed in awareness of environmental issues, and in particular the challenge of climate change. Among many breakthroughs, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its fourth assessment report - laying out the science of global warming more clearly than ever - and the Nobel peace prize was co-awarded to the panel and Al Gore.
Today, however, many nations are facing recessionary trends and high rates of inflation. Oil prices are at an all-time high, and look likely to rise even higher. A price touching $140 per barrel is something no one could have predicted even six months ago, despite spiralling prices throughout 2007.
Food prices have also increased as a result of fundamental factors, including rapidly increasing demand for food grains against prolonged stagnation in supply. Increasing prices have hit some of the poorest countries most severely, particularly those that have low incomes and are largely dependent on imports for basic subsistence. According to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation, annual food expenditure of the most vulnerable countries has more than doubled since 2000. In a number of these nations food now constitutes 70%-80% of family expenditure. It is not at all surprising that we've seen food riots and large-scale demonstrations.
In this context, there is growing worldwide concern that the economic slowdown could lead to a parallel slowdown in environmental progress, with governments less willing to advocate the hard steps essential for reducing greenhouse emissions. This is indeed a worry, but I see a ray of hope, as I believe that global society is seriously questioning whether today's problems can be solved through short-term measures, as has been the case with routine ups and downs in the economy during past cycles. Could this lead to a widespread realisation that today's problems are the result of fundamental flaws in past growth and development patterns? There are, in my view, two reasons to suggest that the answer could be yes.
First, the world has reached an unprecedented level of awareness of the science behind climate change, with the contents of the IPCC's fourth assessment disseminated extensively by the media worldwide. A growing number of people - and not just typical environmentalists - now believe that climate change is not a concern for the distant future but something we are witnessing here and now. The cyclone that caused massive devastation in Burma and the extensive floods in Iowa, for instance, are linked in the public perception to climate change. Public concerns in several parts of the world have been heightened to such an extent that extreme weather events are invariably attributed to climate change. Never before has human society been gripped by such a strong realisation of the need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels - and even change our lifestyles - in order to reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Second, this existing resolve is being strengthened considerably by increasing oil prices, which prompted even a conservative Republican like President Bush to state that America is "addicted to oil" and must switch to alternatives. Car manufacturers are already investing heavily in electric vehicles - which reduce oil dependency and emissions - and public transport systems are getting renewed attention. As some politicians in the UK and elsewhere have recently argued, with high oil prices the world can't afford not to go green.
The possibility of a shift to other forms of energy is something that is not lost on the major oil producers. So it's no surprise that Saudi Arabia has convened a summit of producers and consumers to see what needs to be done to stabilise oil prices. A continuing increase in prices would accelerate a move towards renewables, which would not support the interests of producer nations.
Based on all this, and on my discussions with policymakers, I believe the world is beginning to look at the deep underlying causes of its current problems, and is preparing for radical change. Barack Obama's performance in the US presidential race is, I think, symptomatic of a widespread thirst for such a change.
What we have today is no routine downturn in the conventional economic cycle. It is, and is seen to be, the crossroads in human progress that compels a major turn in direction. I believe the current generation is ready for such a shift and is unlikely to be distracted for long by an economic downturn that emanates from serious systemic distortions in existing patterns of growth.
*(Rajendra K Pachauri chairs the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and is director general of The Energy & Resources Institute).
-(Counter currents)

The doggish kind
By Tajamul Hussain
The quadruped canine, be it the street dog or any fancy dog, hangs around and responds to your affectionate call when you throw a piece of bread or bone towards it. With the instinct not to be distrustful, it licks your shoes with all the love, affection and indebtedness. Dog, wild or domestic, is known for being maintained for centuries for companionship and has contributed to the quality of human life by its long association with and devotion to the humans. The positive effect of the canine on the well being of people is well documented. During the century's long association, the humans picked up a lot from it. The little creature had not however much to pick up from the fellow humans. Millions of the people world over own dogs just because they are good natured, simple and easily amused. They are faithful, loyal and of course man's best friend. During the Mao-Tse-Tung pet dogs were branded bourgeois in China and were therefore banned. In the 1990s however the same were shipped from Moscow to Beijing on the Trans Siberian railways. Dogs that sold in Russia for $ 70 fetched as much as $ 900 in China.
For Americans dogs are not exactly Mensa members either, but they definitely make better pets than tropical fish. Master is home alone and he suddenly starts choking on a piece of 'taken out' Chilled food and then collapses to the floor, dying. A pet tropical fish or for that matter a parrot is not going to alertly rush over to the phone, knock the receiver off the hook, dial hospital emergency with its nose and bark excitedly into the mouth piece until the operator sends paramedics. Of course, all the time faithful dog is not going to do all this either in the day to day life, though it can be seen doing so in a typical Bollywood movie off its master's increasingly blue face. But while it is doing this, it will never be thinking about sneaking away with the Chilled food scattered all about. It will on the other hand be thinking loyal thoughts about the master.
In a corner there in front of a butcher's shop it is one amongst many hungry souls. With all eyes to pounce on the piece of bone that the butcher chucks away, the canine gets visions that are largely need based, typical of animal instincts, nothing more than to satisfy its hunger. Unlike humans it does not manipulate, machinate, or conjure crooked thoughts of hoarding and usurping at the cost of its fellow canines. The clich‚-ridden adjective tagged on to the "greedy" bundle of doggish flesh and bones can not think anything but trust, loyalty and sacrifice. It soon steps aside to let other carnivores to have their share, even if the butcher throws succulent mouthful 'Raan' before it.