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Election fever across the globe
By Arun Nehru
The election of the US President is over and President Barack Obama wins by a slender margin in the popular vote but by a landslide getting 330 electoral votes to 200 by Mitt Romney and before the elections are over the system is confronted with economic issues which can determine the direction the global economy will take and with the UK, Europe in trouble and the Middle East in violent mode and the BRIC countries battle with low growth we are all heading for a roller coaster ride and as I have said many times before the year 2013 will be very difficult and could be worse than 2012. We have received a wake up call with the IIP figures in September, the trade deficit at 20 billion is at an all time high and the failed Spectrum auction in Telecom is not a good sign.

We cannot ignore reality and if negative thoughts continue to prevail and we govern under the shadow of instant media trials based on audit reports, half truths and every decision, every discretion or choice is subject to a inquiry and if we choose to live in a world of PIL’S, FIR’S, Charge sheets where anyone in public service can at any time be accused of a conspiracy and persecuted then we are asking for a catastrophe. Sad but we persecute success in any form and anyone who can find fault with the ruling party is given instant ‘Mahatma’ status.

The blame game is on and we do little but to destroy what we have on a daily basis and do not blame the government alone for this situation. This is the negative we have to deal with and as I have said earlier, the Higher Courts have to play a decisive part and I think this may already be happening as the PIL’S are now moving from the Law courts to the TV channels [no proof is necessary] and it is also time for the Congress and the BJP and leading Regional parties to close their ranks and confront the mambo jumbo being spread by frustrated elements.

The Congress have managed their issues with the mid term Cabinet surgery rather well and while a one or two may be unhappy it has been a well managed exercise and now the changes in the party are awaited. The key to success for the Congress in preparation for 2014 will be effective communication between the party and the government and morale of the workers by the repeated presence of the Congress High Command in the States. There are issues to be resolved in key States like AP, Karnataka, Bengal, Jharkhand, MP, Punjab and Odisha and in politics nothing is ever static and the ‘window of opportunity’ will come and go as Coalition patterns change as elections draw near.

I am a little shocked as the BJP struggle with BJP President Nitin Gadkari and internal audit projections make little sense to anyone and sadly after a fortnight of confusion and damage there is some corrective action on the horizon. The BJP need a ‘new’ President and they need someone who is known in the country and can spend full time in the field and age and fitness is a very critical factor and I cannot understand why with the talent available the decision is so difficult to take and as a example look at Bihar which is their success story and Ravi Shanker Prasad, Rajiv Pratap Rudi or Shahnawaz Hussain all of who have been Union Ministers can fill the vacancy with a positive.

All the U Turns on BJP President and his business interests at this stage will complicate issues further and shows multiple power centers within the RSS and the BJP and this has been the problem ever since Atal Behari ji moved away from active politics and this will continue to plague the BJP as they head towards 2014. The reality of life is that decisions cannot be postponed to a distant future as today there is no UPA or NDA but Regional forces who will align at will after the numbers are clear with the Congress and the BJP.

There will be the issue of the ‘secular and non secular’ front and here again many will keep their voters guessing till the elections are over and will then take a decision when the minority voter no longer has a option and as a example this is what the TMC could do in Bengal?

We have the Winter session after a few days and the TMC are determined to see the UPA Government out and are desperate for a early poll but this may not be easy as every party has its own compulsions and while everyone will say they are ready for elections the vast majority would like to wait as no one really looks forward to a early election and hundred or thousands of crores in electoral expenditure which are necessary in elections today.

My assessment is that elections will be on time but who can predict the flow of political accidents when there are several moving parts both within and outside the UPA Coalition and the Opposition.

The Telecom story was our great success and the Rs 1,76,000 crore loss figure indicated by the CAG has set in motion a chain of events which has more than destroyed our image as a global player and is there any need to highlight the Spectrum auction which estimated a collection of Rs 40,000 crores and what was the result? We are all entitled to our views and to me these figures came from ‘outer space’ and I wonder if we are in any position to take corrective action for the future. We are going to destroy our entire energy sector and this covers Petroleum, Coal, Power as each requires decision making and discretion and since everyone is suspect and subject to future persecution who will take a decision?

We can play the blame game and pass the buck but there is a serious imbalance in the delicate balance between all the three wings of governance and archaic accountability systems are leading to this mismatch and we are no longer ‘flirting’ with anarchy and chaos, it has arrived.
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News Updated at : Saturday, November 17, 2012
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